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Thread: High Hopes with Tsarina...

  1. #1

    High Hopes with Tsarina...

    Firstly, wasn't sure whether this should be in Rules or Strategy or General, but felt it fitted better here.

    Ok, so, I've heard mention a couple of times, on the TRP podcasts, of High Hoping with Tsarina instead of Ant Man.

    But I can't see how that works.

    What am I missing?

  2. #2
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    If you're rolling all 10 dice turn 3 (assuming you bought Tsarina turn 1, PXG x2,then patch turn 2, PXG x3) and you roll both characters at zero fielding cost, you can use TCFW (Iceman's global) to turn 7 SK to bolts, use enrage or invulnerability to pump Tsarina's attack to 9. If your opponent's field is empty and has no energy, you may attack with Tsarina (doing 2), then, unblocked, she does her damage twice thanks to Patch. It's lethal, and barely so, and requires a bunch of IFs, but it can work.

  3. #3
    The odds of getting the roll you need on turn 3 is exactly the same. Ant-Man lvl 3 and Patch lvl 2 or 3 vs Tsarina lvl 1 or 2 and Patch lvl 1. With Ant-Man, you have 1 energy to spare. You can either ping an opposing Sidekick that would block you, or DCK global so you can't be Distractioned away. With Tsarina you have 0 energy left over to deal with potential road blocks. But if the path is clear, you can do it.
    Last edited by Randy; 05-07-2015 at 07:10 AM. Reason: typos

  4. #4
    Ah, ok, I must have been doing the math in my head wrong somewhere, 'cause I was always short one or two from lethal.

  5. #5
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    You know, if you spend one energy to field Patch (using Tsarina), you can still get to 20 if Patch attacks. And if you have to pay to field Tsarina, her attack is 3. Are the odds really that good? That makes this more reliable than I thought...

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Jthomash2 View Post
    You know, if you spend one energy to field Patch (using Tsarina), you can still get to 20 if Patch attacks. And if you have to pay to field Tsarina, her attack is 3. Are the odds really that good? That makes this more reliable than I thought...
    This makes me want to go for this combo every game. I pass priority to my opponent, and if they just PXG out of habit with no blockers, game over.

  7. #7
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    Yeah, and I think Ant Man is level 2 or 3 for each character... But any level for either character (with one or ) should be roughly 55% reliable.

    Remember, in Vegas, 53% at the sportsbook covers the juice. These might be pretty good odds...

  8. #8
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    @Randy , can you verify? Is this accurate?

  9. #9
    55% overall (that is, getting the right rolls turns 1, 2, and 3) or just on rolling the necessary character faces on turn 3?

  10. #10
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    Odds for turn 3 only.

  11. #11
    Gotta be higher than 53%.

    Rolling 8 sidekicks, you just need 1 of them to come up or . Then you factor in the reroll... that's 16 potential individual die rolls, and you just need 1 of them to get the result it has a 2 in 6 chance of getting.

    The characters are 50/50. But remember the reroll. So you have 2 50/50 chances for each character.

    I gotta say... the percentage has gotta be more like 70% or so. The big "if" is your opponent's board. Are there blockers? Can they use Distraction? Can they ping one of your characters to death?

    Edit: I also was just looking at the percentage for the turn 3 killing blow.

  12. #12
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    In this case, BEWD does not help significantly, because you still need to PXG 3 times turn two (unless you have Resurrection, in which case I think it gives you another way to roll all your dice turn 3, but doesn't change the turn 3 probability).

  13. #13
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    The odds of any one die being character (or action) after reroll are 75%. So the odds of both are 75% of 75% (56.25%). The odds of not getting or on any SK (rolling 8) for one roll are 3.9% and after reroll 0.15%. So I really think it works out to be 56.1% turn 3 probability. I'm fairly confident I did this right... @ELC1847 please chime in.

  14. #14

  15. #15
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    Oh I agree. It doesn't feel right. It feels way too low. But it is refreshing that you likely can't count on losing like this before your third turn going second 80% of the time.

  16. #16
    As someone who is going through the first four turns of various teams over and over again, I can tell you the odds are much lower than that. You need your first two turns to turn out right as well. Those are the turns that really put a kink in the plan. But the odds of getting both character faces on turn three are correctly cited above as .75 x .75, or .5625.

  17. #17
    Also some simple thing can kill it. Magic Missle and distraction are two big stoppers since you can often ping tsarina, and ant man or simply distract them.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Indy Mon View Post
    As someone who is going through the first four turns of various teams over and over again, I can tell you the odds are much lower than that. You need your first two turns to turn out right as well. Those are the turns that really put a kink in the plan. But the odds of getting both character faces on turn three are correctly cited above as .75 x .75, or .5625.
    Absolutely agree, but that was more than I was willing to crank out. Suppose each turn has a 75% chance of going well. Now you have 75% x 75% x 56%, or about 31.6%. Those first turns are TOTAL guesses, but you get the idea...

  19. #19
    75% seems way too high for those first two turns odds.

  20. #20
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    I'm sure it is. More likely 20% turn one, 50% turn 2. Makes it overall about 6% odds,.

  21. #21
    Yeah, that feels about right.

    Wish I could retain enough probability math in my head to work out the exact percentage odds!

  22. #22
    All that said... that's why this isn't a great strategy by itself. It's nice to have these tools at your disposal, at go for it when the opportunity presents itself. Buying Tsarina on turn 1 and Patch on turn 2, rolling everything on turn 3 is a strategy that many teams can play out of. If everything aligns your first 2 turns and both characters come up energy turn 3... you're not really set back at all. You have oodles of ramp at your disposal, 2 characters that synergize well, and enough energy to buy your bomb. What makes this combo so good is that you can abort at just about anytime, shift gears, and be no worse for wear

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scorpion0x17 View Post
    Yeah, that feels about right.

    Wish I could retain enough probability math in my head to work out the exact percentage odds!
    In case you missed it, there's some good stuff going on with odds calculations right now: http://www.thereservepool.com/thread...d-Dice-Masters

  24. #24
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    If I did this right, turn 2 probability is 8.75%. I have no idea if I did it right, though. http://anydice.com/program/5cfc

    If that's correct, overall probability is closer to 0.9%... That's crazy low.

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Jthomash2 View Post
    The odds of any one die being character (or action) after reroll are 75%. So the odds of both are 75% of 75% (56.25%). The odds of not getting or on any SK (rolling 8) for one roll are 3.9% and after reroll 0.15%. So I really think it works out to be 56.1% turn 3 probability. I'm fairly confident I did this right... @ELC1847 please chime in.
    Looks about right, but let me double check:

    http://anydice.com/program/5cfe

    Using the "At least tab" and looking at results of 19 or higher (or having two character faces and a bolt or wild in 8 sidekick dice), the probability of High Hoping is 56.16%. Not bad at all for a combo, but I'm curious as to how much setup it requires to get to that point.

    EDIT: In terms of the first two turns: 16.67% chance to purchase Tsarina and then PXG x2, and a 8.75% chance to purchase Patch and then PXG x3

    http://anydice.com/program/5d00

    Looking back, I realize the first program is more accurate in terms of checking the third turn ... need to see how though :/ (seems like I just need to reverse the priority of the dice to get a more accurate result).
    Last edited by ELC1847; 05-08-2015 at 02:20 PM.

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