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Thread: Value on the secondary market- is WizKids doing things right?

  1. #1

    Value on the secondary market- is WizKids doing things right?

    So, I just looked-up current value on eBay for a super rare as part of a potential trade. The value has dropped SIGNIFICANTLY in a two-week period. It made me wonder about WizKids' model. Early in Dice Masters, Gobby and Tsarina dominated play. If you had them, you won and if you didn't, you lost (please save arguments about the exceptions to the rule here, I'm intentionally generalizing to discuss a bigger point). They were the best cards in the game and, combined with low supply, their value was incredibly high. Frankly, since then we've seen quite a few SRs that were stinkers. The value for a lot of SRs are under $10. If we say that the average price of a SR is $20 and you expect two in a box and maybe 8 sellable rares per box at $4 each, you get a very rough $52 of expected value from a box. Boxes are $89.10 retail and sell online around $65 and in stores (from my experience) at around $75.

    What impact does long-term expected value being less than cost have on the game? What can or should be done, if anything? Is it inhibiting the game's potential growth?

  2. #2
    As I am a player, it is hard for me to relate. The Rares, Super rares, and even commons and uncommon that are sought after for gameplay benefits fluctuate with the value on those cards placed by the meta. Most SRs listed at their current price (non meta changing ones) are done so just because of the red stripe and actual limited number. The exceptions are the ones that are meta changing. BEWD, Tsarina, Gobby, Jinzo, etc. These guys have retained a high value only as long as there are few if any counters to their abilities as well as their general usefulness.

    Gobby has dropped a bit in price because a few cards have been released that counter or negate his ability. Tsarina is still expensive because for her low cost (in game) and potential, she can wreak havoc on those not ready for her. BEWD has no other card like itself and therefore has also retained a high value.

    The good news (for players not strictly collectors), is that these cards are good, but not necessary to play or win. In regards to the long time impact, it just means the cards overall will spike and level out after a given amount of time. There will be exceptions, but those will truly be super rare. :P

  3. #3
    The reason the value of SRs goes down is because people buy boxes. More product opened = more SRs = more supply and less demand. If you want to inflate the prices of SRs stop buying boxes.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Scum View Post
    The reason the value of SRs goes down is because people buy boxes. More product opened = more SRs = more supply and less demand. If you want to inflate the prices of SRs stop buying boxes.
    Generally true, though I disagree on two points (which will obviously peg me as a former econ student):

    1. More supply does not necessarily equate to less demand. In fact, with the growth of Dice Masters, I think we'd be seeing a shift in the demand curve.

    2. Artificially decreasing supply by not buying goods and putting them on the secondary market will likely not impact several prices since they are artificially inflated by the Buy It Now Effect (a term I just made up). With artificial floors impacting price, decreases in supply have a space where they do not influence price.

  5. #5
    I think it's easy for us to over estimate the effect that this kind of thing can have on the game, because it's easy for us to forget that we are all in the minority here. Earlier when someone mentioned BEWD, Tsarina, Gobby, Jinzo, etc. we all pictured the cards in our heads and thought about the effect they've each had on the meta. We forget that probably over 999 of 1000 DM players have no idea who Jinzo is, and don't care. They play with their buddies, with characters they love from the movies. The thought of resale values would never occur to them. So even if your theory is 100% correct (and it may be) it would still only affect .1 % of players.

    And for the record; Something like an old baseball card goes up and up because the older a rare card gets the harder it is to find. The same should be true with DM cards, but I think it's not because because the sets come out so often. I can't be worried about those missing Ultron SRs any more because I got less than 2 weeks to finish out WoL before Spiderman comes out.......

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Java View Post
    I think it's easy for us to over estimate the effect that this kind of thing can have on the game, because it's easy for us to forget that we are all in the minority here. Earlier when someone mentioned BEWD, Tsarina, Gobby, Jinzo, etc. we all pictured the cards in our heads and thought about the effect they've each had on the meta. We forget that probably over 999 of 1000 DM players have no idea who Jinzo is, and don't care. They play with their buddies, with characters they love from the movies. The thought of resale values would never occur to them. So even if your theory is 100% correct (and it may be) it would still only affect .1 % of players.

    And for the record; Something like an old baseball card goes up and up because the older a rare card gets the harder it is to find. The same should be true with DM cards, but I think it's not because because the sets come out so often. I can't be worried about those missing Ultron SRs any more because I got less than 2 weeks to finish out WoL before Spiderman comes out.......
    This is true, which is why I look at the rarity stripe as merely a ratio per gravity feed.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Java View Post
    And for the record; Something like an old baseball card goes up and up because the older a rare card gets the harder it is to find.
    That ignores the demand aspect. If a card is of an awful player, the demand is still low. Same with the playability of a DM card. If it's useless, demand is lower, which drives price down- regardless of the age of the card.

  8. #8
    For a lot of players I would imagine the current trend that quite a few of the must have "competitive" cards being non super rare is a good thing for the game. If every set the super rares were the most powerful/best cards it would put quite a few people off.

    In your equation you work out 52 worth of rares and super rares (btw how do you work out 8 sellable? My gf tend towards 15 rares, in fact don't think I ever have had less than 14)

    So for the other 13 dollars you get, by your maths 170 cards and dice.

    In the UK, my view of a gf price wise breaks down as

    2 x sr @ 25 = 50 (first month of release,
    15 x r @ 3.5 = 52.5

    There alone we already have more than the rrp of a gf. And again are left with another 163 cards/dice.


    Secondary market is little of wizkids issue. They're not the ones selling the singles nor the ones setting the price. I do think they've made a seemingly concise effort NOT to repeat the gobby/tsarina situation which in my opinion is definitely the best thing for the game long term. It stops new players being completely discouraged by high secondary values of "must have" cards. I accept that secondary market is important for the game though but also realise that wizkids are learning as they go with this game. And the first set suffered (and still sufferes) shortages of stock which keeps prices artificially high. Better stock levels lead to the prices were seeing for more recent sets. Again I think this is a good thing for the game.

    The expectation vs long term pricing is a tricky one. If you buy at release month secondary prices your cards are only ever heading downwards in price unless they become a staple power card in the main meta. This is something completely unpredictable as no one knows what's coming next. My personal view is if I buy on the secondary market a: after a certain point this is cheaper than hoping to draw the handful I need b: that's the current price but I fully accept 2 months after release most sr tend to be 15-20 not the 25-35 I'd pay in the first month. But that's the price I pay for getting them straight after release.

    The only negative in my opinion is on those looking to price gouge or profiteer on potential competitive cards. But I view these behaviours as WAY more damaging to the game I love than wizkids balancing the competitiveness of cards across rarities and ensuring ample supply.

  9. #9

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by timbowyer View Post
    Oh and I expect gobby to take a jump in price when spiderman hits with the ally mechanic as people look to this increased number of dice which class as sidekicks.
    ^^^ This.

    The value of all the cards fluctuates as they find greater or lesser use within the meta as it changes.

    As for long term trends. This game is less than 2 years old, and has only had decent stable supply for less than half that time, so it is much much to early to judge how prices will change over the long term.

  11. #11
    Tim, I'll claim a little ignorance around release time since I'm buying, but not selling. I see about 16 rares per feed and assumed half had value on the market and could sell.

    "The only negative in my opinion is on those looking to price gouge or profiteer on potential competitive cards. But I view these behaviours as WAY more damaging to the game I love than wizkids balancing the competitiveness of cards across rarities and ensuring ample supply."

    Assuming no shortage of supply, high prices on the secondary market should drive the primary market.

  12. #12
    I don't have that much selling experience myself but when I have sold cards near release all rares fly out. Again the meta can change over weeks so cards initially looked at as weaker can often find themselves a key component in a competitive team a week or two down the line.

    Also there a lot of people who just want everything.

    I think there's more than enough value in a gravity feed to exceed it's rrp, let alone the commonly discounted prices most people buy at.

    The game is likely to grow over the next couple of years which will bring with it both more demand but also likely more supply of singles (which I would imagine will reduce the costs of c/Uc sets but fix the prices of r/sr if not raise them). Also the move to 8 super rares will drive both the primary and secondary market. Which appears to have been the calculated move from wizkids.

    Price speculation is a hard thing, especially with the set rotation rumours kicking about. And as scorpion says, this is a relatively new game which if we're honest is still finding it's feet a little.

    Overall I think wizkids are taking thjngs down a healthy balance approach at the minute (but if chase rare ever become unique cards not full art my opinion changes instantly!) And I for one am optimistic about the future. Personally when I buy gf (generally a sealed case) I see enough value in that out of sr and r and am more than happy to give away the masses of commons and uncommons for next to nothing to players in my group. I still feel I've had good value. And by buying multiple feeds it reduces my need to resort to the secondary market. If the values of secondary market go up, more people by feeds, which reduces demand and prices and floods the market with commons and uncommons (in my opinion - obviously I could be completely wrong on this)

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